Over the next few decades, emerging markets will come to dominate the global economy. By 2050, China will be the largest economy and six of today’s emerging markets will be among the world’s seven largest economies, along with the United States. This economic sea change, as well as the rebalancing of political and military power that will likely accompany it, will pose significant challenges for international coordination.
In no area are these challenges greater than in managing the global commons, starting with climate change but also including essential resources and preventing global pandemics. Differences in income, technological capacity, and the capability of institutions can complicate arriving at deals to preserve the global commons. Going forward, such deals will require agreement by a core group of advanced and developing countries; they are unlikely to be reached by universal assemblies.
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