How should climate change be addressed in Tajikistan, the poorest and—according to a World Bank regional assessment, most climate-vulnerable—country in Eastern Europe and Central Asia?1 On a recent visit to this scenic nation to assess the poverty aspects of climate change, we struggled with this seemingly simple question. Answers remain elusive, given the country’s daunting climate dilemmas. So, while in Dushanbe, I attempted to write about the range of the challenge.
First, consider Tajikistan’s thousands of glaciers, many of which are receding. As they melt, farmers downstream enjoy plentiful water supply and see no need to take action. However, once the glaciers are gone, dry rivers and extreme water scarcity could mean the end of farming livelihoods in some areas.
Water is also at the heart of another dilemma—irrigation versus hydropower. Much of Central Asia’s water originates in Tajikistan’s mountains, and other countries crave this water to irrigate thirsty cotton crops in summer. But Tajikistan needs the water year-round for hydropower, its only significant domestic source of energy. Climate change will complicate this situation further as water flows start to diminish or become less predictable.
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