In late June the House of Representatives approved The American Clean Energy and Security Act. If the Senate approves a similar version, this would constitute the most important American legislation on overall control of carbon-emitting gases. The main provision of the bill is a cap and trade system, to begin in 2012, which would provide allowances for emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The goal of the bill is to reduce the carbon emitted by American industries to 17 % below 2005 levels by the year 2020, and to reach more than 83% below 2005 levels by 2050.
Some environmentalists have criticized the 2020 energy-reduction goal as too little and too late. However, I believe that the optimal greenhouse gas policy is to go slow initially until greater evidence on the severity of global warming becomes more apparent. The main threat to the world from global warming is an as yet unknown probability of quite severe warming that would cause considerable harm-the world could adjust at relatively little cost to a moderate degree of global warming. The additional evidence accrued during the next decade will provide more information about the likelihood of the severe warming that would merit more drastic steps. If such steps become warranted, then the rate of carbon reduction and carbon storage should be speeded up beyond that envisioned in the House bill. On the other hand, if milder versions look likely, the 2050 goal of a more than 80% reduction in carbon emissions could be relaxed.
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