These are nervous times for free trade advocates in Washington DC. The global “Doha” round of trade talks has stalled, with wide gulfs remaining between the US and most of the rest of the world. The White House’s trade promotion authority (TPA), or “fast track”, expires in the middle of next year, and with it the administration’s capability to negotiate entire trade deals. The odds currently stand against it being renewed, particularly if the Democrats take one or both houses of Congress in November’s midterm elections. All this adds up to fears of a return to full blown trade wars and a retreat from a commitment to globalisation.
But, as has always been the case over the past few years, the encircling wraiths of protectionism have yet to be made flesh. In a series of interviews over the past week with current and former administration officials, senators, congressmen, lobbyists and think-tank trade experts, there remains a surprising degree of confidence that free trade can still prevail.
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