Since the end of its civil war, China has achieved staggeringly high rates of growth. Except during crisis periods like the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution, the Chinese economy has increased its size by between 8 and 10 percent a year. Today’s economists are divided over the question of whether China’s extraordinary growth will continue. Some, like James Trippon of “The China Stock Digest,” suggest that within 15 years, China will be the largest economy in the world; others, like Dominic Wilson, chief global economist at Goldman Sachs, project that China won’t surpass the US until 2035. This dispute has implications for economists and businesses worldwide. China’s growth will put more pressure on world markets for capital, energy and raw materials, driving those prices up. How much pressure depends on whether China grows at a 3-percent clip, much like other nations do, or booms with 10 percent or more. Gauging China’s growth could be an imperative task for, not only the Chinese, but also investors and other governments around the world who like to plan ahead. – YaleGlobal
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