We may be kidding ourselves, of course, but at present it looks as though the global financial crisis will let us off lightly. Don't conclude from this, however, that the global recession is looking any less threatening for the rest of the world.
It does seem likely that the US economy will start growing again before the end of this year. But given it's been in recession since the beginning of last year, that will hardly be before time. And unemployment is nonetheless likely to continue worsening before it starts a slow improvement.
The outlook is a lot weaker for Europe and not all that flash in Japan. So the Great Recession is still likely to live up to its name. It will be some years before the developed world is back to growing at a normal rate and a lot longer before it has restored unemployment to its earlier level.
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