As economists and politicians anticipate the publication of official figures for UK economic growth and the World Economic Forum gathers at Davos, new research from independent think-tank nef, warns that we should be wary of celebrating rising GDP.
The report, Growth Isn’t Possible: Why rich nations need a new economic direction, published today, Monday 25 January 2010, presents evidence that endless economic growth isn’t possible when faced with the threat of climate change and other critical environmental boundaries.
In a unique analysis, the authors assessed a combination of the leading models for climate change and energy use in the global economy. They then asked whether global economic growth could be maintained, while retaining a good likelihood of limiting global temperature rise to 2 °C, the agreed political objective of the European Union and considered the maximum rise to which humanity could adapt without serious difficulty. They found that this would require unprecedented and probably impossible reductions in the carbon intensity of a growing economy. None of the models or variations looked at could square the circle of global economic growth with climate safety. Their analysis shows that:
See full Report.
Posts
