The first decade of the 21st century was the hottest since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global warming is real, and if present trends continue, its possible effects worry publics and governments around the world. Could it foster armed conflict for resources such as food and water? Will Western armies be increasingly called upon to mitigate the effects of natural catastrophes, humanitarian disasters, and floods of refugees?
Think tanks have enthusiastically embraced this new field of research, and militaries around the world are now actively studying the possible impact of a warming planet on global security. Books with titles such as “Climate Wars” predict a bleak future. A well-known French consultant claims that a 5 degree Celsius increase in average global temperature would generate no less than a “bloodbath.” Former World Bank economist Lord Nicholas Stern—the author of the 2006 “Stern Report” on the possible economic impact of climate change—even declares that failing to deal with climate change decisively would lead to “an extended world war.”
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