Economic modelling is a mug's game. It sounds more scientific than just ordinary “forecasting” with tea leaves or Tarot cards, but substitute a computer for the chook's gizzards and it's only a matter of degree, not absolute difference.The problem with modelling is that no matter how many computers you use, how much Australian Bureau of Statistics data you input, how long an algorithm you can write to wrestle with it, you can never have enough to accurately forecast such an infinitively complex and variable beast as an advanced nation's economy. Modelling a nuclear reaction or a moon shot are relatively simple exercises by comparison.
See full Article.
Posts
