Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Crunching the numbers: How many people have ever lived?

What percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today? We know that sometime this year the world population will tick past 7 billion [1]. We know that there are a whole billion more of us than there were in 1999, as if a new China has appeared out of nowhere. The UN forecasts that the world population is expected to rise further, and further, to a whopping 10.1 billion in 2100 [2]. But what about the past? How many humans have walked on this beautiful planet of ours? And what fraction of people who have ever lived are alive today?

The evolution of humanity is a story of humble beginnings. Humans evolved on the plains of Africa an amazing 200,000 years ago [3] but the population for most of human history has been very, very small (for a flavor of the ‘early years’ see Werner Hertzog’s new movie [4]).

See full Article.