H5N1 is the most virulent bird flu to emerge for years. As the threat of a global pandemic creeps closer, just how geared up is the business community and which sectors are most at risk?
Outbreaks of the deadly bird flu known as H5N1 were first spotted in Vietnam and Thailand in 2003. It spread to several other countries in the region, and has now established a foothold in western Turkey and Romania. No one knows if H5N1 will become as virulent and contagious in people as it is in birds. What we do know is that this flu virus is mutating and has a remarkable ability to evolve and jump species. This has led to a sense of inevitability: most medical experts are convinced that, even if this particular flu virus does not turn into a pandemic, another one will. Dr Michael Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), has stated that he believes there is a 100 per cent probability of a global influenza pandemic.
Others believe that there is a high likelihood of a pandemic within the next five years. It is also generally agreed that the world is not yet ready to cope with such a pandemic. Just as in the cases of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, there is a tendency to assume that the worst will not happen. Then, when disaster does strike, lack of preparedness adds to the chaos. Businesses, along with governments and society generally, need to come to terms with the possible effects of such an outbreak and begin contingency planning as soon as possible. Without adequate planning, no business will be able to deal with the effects of a pandemic if it does occur.
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