Abstract
Greenhouse gas emissions from personal transport have risen steadily in the UK and most other countries of the EU. Yet surprisingly little is known about who exactly is contributing to the problem at the personal level and the extent to which different groups of the population will be affected by the any responses to the climate change problem. This paper describes an innovative methodology and evaluation tool for profiling annual climate change emissions from personal travel across all modes of travel. A case study application of the methodology involving surveys of UK residents provides an improved understanding of the extent to which individual and household travel activity patterns, choice of transport mode, geographical location, socio-economic factors and vehicle technology choice impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Air travel dominates overall emissions, particularly when including climate effects of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. Conversely, land based public transport accounts for a very small proportion of emissions on average. There is a highly unequal distribution of emissions amongst the population, independent of the mode of travel, location and unit of analysis (individual/household).
In particular, there are large disparities between individuals/households: some 20 % of the respondents drove but did not fly although the same number flew but did not drive. The top 10% of emitters are responsible for 43 % of emissions and the bottom 10 % for only 1 %, with those in the top 10 % flying 5 times more than the sample average. The area analysis (urban vs. rural) shows higher levels of urban emissions due to higher propensity to travel by air. Air travel emissions of flyers and non-flyers are also significantly influenced by income levels.
Key policy implications of the results are discussed. The paper concludes by suggesting potential applications of the methodology and evaluation tool.
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