
OIL SUPPLY--WHAT BLUEPRINT FOR THE FUTURE?
The controversy surrounding future oil supply can be divided into two components: a determination of the factors that will drive the much-debated future of oil supply and then, longer term, a consideration of consequences and the actions required when oil supply eventually plateaus. IHS CERA identifies a number of critical observations at the core of this analysis of future supply:
* Supply evolution through 2030 is not a question of resource availability.
* IHS CERA projects growth of productive capacity through 2030, with no peak evident.
* There is no unique picture of the course of future of supply: we are dealing with a complex, multicomponent system.
* Aboveground drivers—economics, costs, service sector capability, geopolitics, the timing and nature of government decision making, and, centrally of course, investment—are crucial to future supply availability.
* Market dynamics will remain highly volatile.
* The upstream oil industry faces major challenges in finding new oil and turning discoveries into commercial production.
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